Editorial note: Discussing Yemen here is important because Yemen’s welfare directly affects Saudi Arabia’s. The two are neighbors, their governments cooperative, their economies somewhat interconnected, and their challenges are similar (except, of course, Saudi Arabia is successful, and Yemen is, well, not).
Yemen’s problems are multifaceted, interconnected and extremely difficult to tackle individually, much less all at once. Their biggest problem, growing unrest and extremism, is something that is likely to draw regional and NATO attention in a historic way.
We have followed this situation for the last 15 months, the rough, measurable timetable of its deterioration, but really has gotten worse since the late Summer, when a suicide bomber attempted to assassinate Prince Nayef in his home. He only injured Prince Nayef and killed himself, but it was evident that the attack was planned and launched from the Yemen-based AQAP (more below). Shortly thereafter, instability began to rock Yemen, and Houthi rebels began to encroach on Saudi territory, and while that situation is still unresolved, clearly the rebels have been no match for Saudi firepower.
Since attention turned to Yemen, the government there appears to be ready to tackle – or at least try with ample outside help – the threat of extremism and to quell unrest that threatens to make the nation a hotbed of extremism. The U.S. is now palpably interested, to say the least, in the progress on this front, and they should be.
Security Fears Overblown
“Spare us the sky-is-falling hysteria. If anything, the failed bombing shows how little we need to fear al-Qaida,” writes Gene Lyons of Salon.com.
He continues: “Most Americans understand that the long battle against al-Qaida and related terrorist groups has little in common with a Hollywood plot. Or at least I hope they do. Watching excitable media personalities and the Chicken Little wing of the Republican Party doing everything possible to turn the failed Christmas airline bombing in Detroit into a combination Super Bowl-size ratings bonanza and political opportunity, however, made me wonder: Can't these jokers be serious about anything?”
Right on. The world’s citizens, media, and leaders will need to take a deep breath, about the bomber’s connections with AQAP, about AQAP itself, and Yemen’s stability in general. To be sure, the overreaction we are experiencing right now is counterproductive at best. For more on this topic, look no further than Marc Lynch’s great post at Foreign Policy.
While there is no question that Yemen is trending toward instability, the urgency of the situation is overblown.
The reality of our current situation is that the so-called “underpants” bomber failed in every aspect except in, as rumors suggest, burning his manhood off his body. And yet he was successful in creating hysteria and overreaction. How did we let this happen? Fear-mongering is back once more, apparently.
9/11 Scars
The inclusion of Saudi Arabia on the list of 14 nations whose nationals will receive extra scrutiny is the revealing of a tragic scar of the 9/11 attacks in the minds of American citizens and leadership, not especially because Saudi Arabia is any more dangerous than, say, France. Before Yemen became the topic du jour from the connection with the Christmas Day bombing, and even before Yemen became a place of heated conflict with itself and on the Saudi border between Houthi rebels and Saudi forces, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula was seen as a downgraded organization. This is because Saudi forces basically destroyed al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and, if the organization wished to survive at all, it needed to base itself somewhere less secure.
So, in essence, Saudi counterterrorism efforts were extremely effective and still are. To be fair, though, many Saudis travel in an out of Yemen, and have family ties to Yemenis – which is a red flag for an administration that cannot afford to appear soft on extremism. But keep in mind this is pretty much the same way many Americans travel to, and have family ties with, Canada or Mexico. It’s the nature of neighboring countries, and it wont change.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen
World focus on Yemen is, de facto, world focus on Saudi Arabia. This is because, as arguably the strongest U.S. ally in the Middle East if not the Arabian peninsula, Saudi Arabia has a lot at stake if Yemen fails or becomes a greater hotbed of al-Qaeda activity. Understandably, this fact is hard for many Americans to grasp, because when Americans think of al-Qaeda and terrorism in general, the memory of the 9/11 is still relatively fresh, and the fact that 15 of the 19 hijackers on September 11th were Saudi Arabian is still thrown around by commentators and politicians alike. But al-Qaeda considers the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia its enemy. Let me reiterate that, for the large number of Americans who don’t know that.
Al-Qaeda considers the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia its enemy.
The point is that Saudi Arabia will not just let Yemen fail, nor will it tolerate any potential Yemeni ambivalence toward a growing extremism problem. Of all the problems going on with Yemen right now, and the implications of these problems for U.S. security, the fact that Saudi Arabia is responsible for its own security is a major plus and a leg-up in any upcoming U.S. efforts. Tom Gjelten at National Public Radio makes this clear.
Conclusion
It’s still safer to fly in a commercial airliner than drive a car in the United States. New screening efforts will create some discomfort for a while for international visitors, including those from Saudi Arabia, but they are sadly politically necessary. The United States should learn from this experience, since it clearly didn’t learn it following 9/11: overreacting to acts of terrorism – attempted or successful – makes the mission of those terrorists a success.
